It has been 3 years now since Global trust bank collapsed.
It was a Saturday in 2004, when the news came in about GTB bank being ordered to close down by the regulatory authorities. There was a widespread panic among the account holders of GTB bank. They were afraid about the money they had deposited in GTB bank accounts. Many private organizations had their employee’s salary accounts in GTB banks. All these people panicked. Moreover, since the news came in on Saturday, no one could do anything. ATMs were blocked, all bank branches closed. Account holders gathered at ATMs and branches with their debit cards and check-books, but no one was allowed to withdraw money from their accounts.
Banks are considered to be safest organizations – this assumption is very incorrect. The world of finance is full of examples where centuries old major banks have collapsed within a matter of days. Barings bank, GTB bank, just to name a few.
Situation was worse for the shareholders of GTB bank. Being a Saturday, there was no trading. Coming Monday, when the markets opened, there were only sellers and no buyers. The stock went down from 8 Rs a share to 2 Rs. and later to zero. The bank had collapsed completely and the stock investors were the ones who lost miserably. Though I was fortunate enough not to have any holdings of GTB stock in my portfolio, but I still cannot forget the look on the face of a colleague who had GTB stocks worth 30,000. That day, 30,000 of his holdings were translated to zero, or a 100% loss.
Later, Oriental bank of commerce acquired GTB. The bank account holder’s money was safe, but the people who lost dearly were the stockholders of GTB.
No equity research analyst, no fund manager, no auditor was able to predict the destiny that GTB stock had met. Instead, it was suppose to be an emerging star of the banking midcaps.
Why am I raising this issue of GTB today after 3 years? No, I’m not going to quote it as another straightforward example of risk in equities, but I want to highlight another debate that has recently begun.
Accounting firm Pricewater House Coopers or PWC was responsible for auditing the bank records of GTB. Banks have a class of assets or holdings, which may result in losses. This falls into the category of NPA or Non-performing assets. The higher the value of NPA for a bank, the worst is its performance. For example, NPA may be coming from the defaulted loans that bank has given to people who defaulted on payment on loans and bank has no way to recollect it back.
Pricewaterhouse coopers was doing auditing of the records of GTB bank and yesterday it came to light that PWC did not report the high level of NPA that GTB bank had. Instead, while doing accounting, it reported a very low level of NPA which was way below the actual figure. Now, the regulatory authorities are going to launch an investigation in which PWC practices have become questionable. PWC can face severe problems, which may include barring it from continuing accounting or auditing work in
The point that I’m trying to make is that it took 3 years for the regulatory authorities to just come up with the charges against the alleged malpractices and the firms and people involved. How long further it will take for the truth to come out, I guess even God cannot tell. Even after the truth is revealed, can the stockholders of GTB get anything – NO. All they can do is repent on their investment decision and think about maintaining caution for further investments. The truth is that the bank collapsed in just 1 day – though being advised as a midcap star performer just few days back.
No fund manager or researcher could guess the destiny of GTB bank. The reason, all their recommendations and investment decisions were based upon the balance sheet analysis, profit and loss account – which ultimately proofed to be erroneous. It’s all there in the past – what will be happening in the future no one can tell with confidence.
Trusting the balance sheets, profit and loss account, Earnings per share EPS, or similar such figures reported in the quarterly or annual financial results can be very risky. It’s easy to say that if there are any problems in the financial reports, the management and governing body members will be put behind bars. However, the truth is that it’s the investors like you and me who loose money. What would an investor get if the financial officer of a bankrupt company is sent to prison? The investor gets nothing – instead he looses his investment. By the time the reality is revealed, it’s too late.
Chasing midcap performers is easy, taking risk is also easy. Let’s just keep in mind the case of GTB bank – 3 years, yet to trace the culprits.
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3 comments:
Dear Shobhit,
Regarding your above article. Somehow I was always under the impression that audited balance sheet can be relied upon,
Collapse of GTB Bank, Enron and many other companies has revealed how much these companies manage to hide under thiose
impressive figures.
I was reading another article of yours about calculating Sharpe ratio. First let me thank you for picking up the term "Sharpe
Ratio" which I had never heard of before. and I quickly did Sharpe Ratio Calculation for some of the stocks which I hold. You
had suggested that it is not a very good idea to entirely bank upon the balance sheet figures and the fate of GTB is clear
example of that. I have a bit of curiosity here- whether Sharpe ratio of GTB was giving any indication of collapse of GTB
Bank, way bak in 2004.
I also feel that market price of shares, which is one of the factors in calculation of Sharpe Ratio, is as much prone to
manipulation as those fancy figures in the balance sheet. That is what Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh did in stock market. I
don't exactly remember in which companies they were manipulating-may be in small or midcap companies. If I recollect well
FAIRGROWTH Financial services was favourite of Harshad Mehta and SILVERLINE & 9 more companies were on the radar of Keten
PAREKH.Being in the financial market you may be able to let us know whether that kind of manipulation is possible in stock
prices of large cap companies.
Risks are there in stocks and mutual funds-that is what you have beautifully explained in various articles. Looks like
instead of trusting the so-called high standrds of corporate governance boasted by these companies it is better to invest in
ETFs and Index Funds as you have mentioned in many of your articles. Believe me, after reading your articles over and over
again and doing some more of self-reading i picked up ETFs and Index Funds during current market fall.
I will much appreciate if you can let us know which of the two ratios- Sharpe Ratio or P/E Ratio better represents the high
quality and low risk of a particular stock?
I was reading one book- "ONE UP ON WALL STREET" by PETER LYNCH, which I liked as much as your various articles. Regarding P/E
Ratio I will just quote one para from this book-
QUOTE
........THE P/E RATIO OF ANY COMPANY THAT'S FAIRLY PRICED WILL EQUAL ITS GROWTH RATE.I'M TALKING OF GROWTH RATE OF EARNINGS HERE.HOW DO YOU FIND THAT OUT? ASK YOUR BROKER WHAT'S THE GROWTH RATE, AS COMPARED TO P/E RATIO.
IF THE P/E OF COCA-COLA IS 15, YOU'D EXPECT THE COMPANY TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT 15 PERCENT A YEAR,ETC. BUT IF THE P/E RATIO IS
LESS THAN THE GROWTH RATE, YOU MAY HAVE FOUND YOURSELF A BARGAIN. A COMPANY, SAY, WITH A GROWTH RATE OF 12 PERCENT A YEAR
(ALSO KNOWN AS A "12 PERCENT GROWER") AND A P/E RATIO OF 12 IS AN UNATTRACTIVE PROSPECT AND HEADED FOR A COMEDOWN.
IN GENERAL, A P/E RATIO THAT'S HALF THE GROWTH RATE IS VERY POSITIVE, AND ONE THAT'S TWICE THE GROWTH RATE IS VERY NEGATIVE. WE USE THIS MEASURE ALL THE TIME IN ANALYZING STOCKS FOR THE MUTUAL FUNDS.
IF YOUR BROKER CAN'T GIVE YOU A COMPANY'S GROWTH RATE, YOU CAN FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF BY TAKING THE ANNUAL EARNINGS FROM VALUE LINE OR S&P REPORTS AND CALCULATING THE PERCENT INCREASE IN EARNINGS FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT.........
UNQUOTE
P/E Ratio is one of the numbers dealt upon in one of the chapters in the above book.
I am getting the impression that P/E not only takes into account market volatility of stock price but also Balance sheet earnings.
How do you compare Sharpe Ratio and P/E Ratio? which one is more effective in giving early indication of collapse? If none of these then what else is more effective indicator of company's health? or investor just have to wait and watch for the lady luck to smile or frown?
Thank you once again for sharing your thoughts and for your precious time which you spare for educating and alleviating the novice investors like me.
With best wishes and regards
ANIL RAI (anil.h.rai@gmail.com)
Market Price of Shares is not that much prone to manipulations, because there are large no. of market participants willing to act on it. Hence, it is not easy to manipulate the market prices of shares that are traded heavily (which includes all midcaps and most of small caps).
Manipulation is possible only when there is a small no. of market participants.
Coming to balance sheet figures, they are very easy to manipulate. As I will demonstrate in my next article with an example of share buyback. Since there are only the company officials who have access to the figures and project details, they can manipulate it easily.
Harshad Mehta, Ketan Parisk, etc. were of the times when there were paper shares in circulation. Harshad created forge share paper documents and sold them. That is what he was charged for. It is not possible to do that kind of bogus work as entire trading is now done electronically.
Whenever you read a book or article, please remember one thing - the book is available to you as well as to rest of the world. So you cannot gain anything extra by following the principles. It's just a way that may prove to be beneficial. Sharpe ratio is not a foolproof method, as I've said in my article. It is better, because manipulation chances are less. There cannot be any indication for collapse or high rise. In all my articles, I;ve said clearly - THINGS WORK RANDOMLY - and that' what goes on. :-)
Dear Shobhit, Thank you so much for your respnse and views.
Best wishes and regards.
Anil Rai (anil.h.rai@gmail.com)
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